Hiya. Been watching it fairly close the last few days. As ever I’m going to be the sceptic! Whilst it looks really good initially, the northerly, then northeasterly tucking in behind the large trough sinking into Europe, the really cold air doesn’t arrive in time for the precipitation to fall widely as snow, and even then, the precipitation is dying down and dying away during the process (ie the trough over Ireland and Britain is not active enough at that stage.)
Also, the short-wave south of Iceland (always the bloody short-waves these days!!) cuts off both the ridgeing towards the pole and Greenland, and cuts off the very cold air supply. Then the next bit is the resulting Scandinavian/Northwest European high pressure that builds and brings easterly winds to Britain and Ireland, has not engaged any really cold air (not cold enough anyway) to bring any real wintery weather (apart from frost away from east-facing coasts).
This is in part due to that short-wave (the modern cold-lover’s scourge) having cut that high (in it’s early form, a ridge from Greenland/the Pole) off from it’s parent source, and partly because the resulting high over EUrope does not ridge back north enough, and it’s resulting orientation does not source really cold air from either Scandi or East Europe (because also a trough has gone over the top of it through Scandi and into East Europe and Russia, bringing cold-ish air down that way but too far over and too quick to get subsumed into the high while it feeds into Ireland.
To cut a long story short, similarly to these type of situations in recent years, the orientation is just not right, the ridging north and then westwards are not strong enough/not with the right orientation. We need the high over Scandianvia sourcing very cold air from northeast Europe westwards, and then if and when that happens (could still progress to that in the coming weeks) it needs to be able to ridge westwards enough to really impact Ireland.
All that said, these do at least look like very interesting “building blocks”, and this has already been the most interesting winter in this part of the world for people who like colder weather scenarios for a few years.
In the past when you saw these sort of synoptics showing up around now, it often went on to result in very cold spells of weather with significant snowfall widely during mid-to-late january, and/or feb. But that has all changed with climate warming…