Weather thread


#1769

Interestingly Met Éireann is having none of the above, not a screed of it! No storm on Thursday, quite nice weather forecast in fact! And mild and breezy Saturday with some rain or showers in the west, not bad elsewhere. This will be an interesting watch!


#1770

Were things not meant to get bad on Tuesday?


#1771

Not according to Al!


#1772

How much milk and bread will we need to get in?


#1773

Final track of ex-hurricane Helene is pretty much sorted and she will travel up the Irish Sea while you are all sleeping tonight and she will drop quite a bit of rain, heavy and persistent at times and the winds will be strong and gusty, maybe a yellow level warning but nothing too serious. It was modeled to be a lot worse than it looks like it will be now, thankfully, it looks to be losing a lot of its oomph.

The rest of the week will be wet and windy as a low pressure system stalls out to our west. More anon.


#1774

remember my measuring stick at the moneen river during the drought which was at 3cm? still hovering around it, the river hasnt really increased since. ground is still recovering nationwide.


#1775

Yea the lough here is still very low as well.


#1776

Ooooh matron …


#1777

It should start to recover soon, the ground is nearing full moisture in various parts of the country. I’d imagine by month end we’ll see levels rise.


#1778

It will rise this week I’m sure. Beyond that it’s not yet clear if it will remain very unsettled. October can be a very dry month sometimes.

Update on the main events this week:
Tue- some heavy rain in most places, potential for torrential downpours due to tropically warm, unstable air. Unpredictable potential for short-lived very strong winds developing locally as the system clears through, difficult to forecast due to the potential for late rapid development in an ex-tropical storm system.
Weds- some wet and very windy weather, northwest worst effected, with strong gales, stormy gusts, Gale 8 on the east coast, higher gusts, heavy showers, heavy rain in the northwest half of the country.
Thurs- remains forecast a rapidly developing storm, short-lived but potentially damaging, all areas at risk due to the track right over the country, heaviest rain probably south and east. This will also usher in colder conditions after a cooling trend through the week.
Sat- more uncertain but there’s a recurring indication for a slow-moving trough of low pressure to track right over the country with heavy rain by afternoon/evening. It will be cold also.
Then sat night into Sunday has some indications that this system could develop into a significant storm, possibly major. Worse than Thursday possibly as it will be slow moving leading to floods and sustained high winds, up to storm force ten, possibly touching higher.

But that is a long way off and other forecasts have shown the system not developing like that and/or almost completely missing us, so I would wait til Thursday to see if the forecasting trend strengthens. Here is a current forecast chart for sunday:

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Hello Ireland! Come in Ireland, do you read me??
Btw Met Éireann have not come around to the idea of heavy rain on Thursday, and not a bar of any storm. This is going to get interesting to see if they are very wrong or very right, hats off if they manage to pull it off.
As regards sat they mention a possibility of rain but that’s it. Which could well be right…
Other major forecast models also not interested in either the Thursday or wknd events I have shown from the model above. An interesting week anyway!


#1779

GFS model has now backed right off any storm prediction for thursday, though heavy rain still possible. They are still forecasting a big storm later saturday into sunday.


#1780

So we are going to have a bit of bad weather? Well that’s okay. Once I don’t have to watch sombre Leo and his goons on the telly ('Make sure to stay indoors…if you are not homeless…er…). Please let them not give it a colour either. There won’t be sliced pan left otherwise.


#1781

Big storm Saturday … you are joking … I’m supposed to be staying in a cardboard feckin tent at feile on saturday night…


#1782

See you in Limerick :joy:


#1783

im supposed to be doing a very long run sunday morning :worried:

feile has thurles in bloody lock down this weekend. although all the pubs have been granted extensions till 2.30am from what i hear.


#1784

Well after the back down on the first two big storm forecasts of the autumn don’t be surprised if the predicted one for the wknd doesn’t come to pass.


#1785

will be clearer closer to the time i suppose, might have to stay off the gargle and just drive home after.


#1786

Saturday into Sunday is the next moment of interest for disruptive weather. Some of the weather prediction models are not going for it just yet, while 2 of the big players are saying yes! It has potential for gusts of 140kph and a lot of rain. It’s far from certain yet. There was also a big storm predicted for Helene and tonight. While they did (and will) happen, they’re not as bad as initially predicted by the models. As a result, I’m not making any bold comment on Saturday and Sunday just yet. Suffice to say, if it does occur as some are showing, there will be amber wind and rain warnings as a minimum.

More as it’s available.


#1787

ah crap. Let me know how this shapes up!


#1788

Tomorrow’s gales and rain with stormy conditions in the west and northwest are nailed on. Disruption and damage up there and Dubintipp’s groundwater situation much improved again which will mean that the potential heavy rain on Thursday will see a likely noticeable rise in river level. This however will only be maintained if the possible wknd wipe out happens as it looks like another significant fine, dry spell is in store for next week.