Weather thread


#1745

Ali is close enough :slightly_smiling_face:


#1746

Let’s hope it doesn’t get quite that warm. :astonished:


#1747

:smile:


#1752

what strength storm is it currently @Rochey?


#1753

56 seconds in how quickly the water rises. ■■■■.


#1754

The guy in the freeze frame before you play the video looks like Jim McGuinness, explaining how, in a Moses-like way, he opened up the Dublin defence in 2014.


#1755

Roaring in a Gandalf type voice… you shall not pass…


#1756

It’s a tropical storm at present and it’s only really starting today, so don’t actually know. The current prediction on the models I just saw is for mean wind speed of 35 mph (60 kph) and gusting to 110 mph (175 kph) The mean wind speed being so high is quite a worry. It will of course weaken as it travels north and the waters get cooler, but according to the boffins in NOAA it’s on course for Ireland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Watching it like a hawk now!


#1757

Also, meant to add, if it stays on track there’s a good possibility of widespread damage as trees are still in full foliage, meaning the trees are top heavy and filled with thousands of mini sails!


#1758

I’m a bit confused by some of your details there and previous. There is no such thing as ‘storm force 8’, force 8 is the lowest force of ‘gale’, quite typical for Ireland. And a sustained windspeed of 35mph is no great shakes really, that’s what you’d expect in a gale. if that’s the actual sustained speed, then ‘gusting to 110mph’ makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, you just don’t get that sort of difference, percentage wise, between sustained and gusts, except in a severe thunderstorm or very extreme squall.

Looking at the current modelling, now in a reliable time-frame, it is certainly true that this tropical storm is going to hit Ireland in some way, looks like strong gale nine in the south and west to me, with storm-force gusts. Of course with these sort of storms, it’s very unpredictable right up to the last 24 hours at least.


#1759

Now you’re being pedantic.

I was quoting different model runs with different outputs. Well you know it too. Sustained winds of 35mph is damage territory too.

Thanks anyway


#1760

Incredible


#1761

Still on course for early am Tuesday. Met E now talking about issuing wind and rain warnings closer to the time. It’s not a hurricane though, just to clarify. It’s a tropical storm.


#1762

It’s neither very shortly if not already, it’s going to be an ordinary Atlantic low pressure system before it hits these shores.


#1763

So Helene looks to track right up the Irish sea early Tuesday with very strong wind gusts and heavy rain in a very humid storm system. I’d expect Met E to issue warning levels later today, with potential for upgrades 50/50.

And Al, if your only contribution here nowadays is to contradict anything i write, then I feel sorry for you! The current output suggest this will not be a standard Atlantic storm. And as for it’s origin and track, it’s absolutely not a standard Atlantic storm. So please stop trolling.


#1764

Weather wars! :astonished: Give it a rest will ya. I disagreed with your coverage of this event since a few days ago, that’s all. No offence intended. I felt you talked it up too much, and lost sight of the detail when it became clear it was very unlikely to be a major event. Disagreement on here is allowed the last time I heard about the etiquette of posting, it doesn’t have to be personal.

What I said since a few days ago was it looked like being a standard low pressure with a gale or strong gale by the time it hit us. I applaud the fact that the original forecast got its tracking very accurate from a long way out. The first charts I saw didn’t bring it next or nye us.
Of even more interest right now is that there’s a potential major Atlantic storm coming our way in a few days time. If it comes to pass we’re looking at storm force 10 winds in places, very heavy rain, and heralding in much colder weather pot ntially also. Certainly an earlyer synoptic start to ‘autumn’ than many years past. But it could end up staying further north and just swiping the northwest of the country.


#1765

When is that due of hit al? Supposed to be going to the feile classic, but won’t bother me hoop if it’s going to chucking down.


#1766

Thursday evening and night looks bad:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=102&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


#1767

Saturday-Sunday not looking good, but it’s a long way off. Certainly looks like it will be cold:

15371233028801375284489


#1768

Midday Saturday current forecast is rain and 9 degrees celcius:

18092212_1612