That is exactly what came into my head when I read @Tayto’s post!
Looks like a period of very stormy weather coming with alot of rain
Yes Al, a week ahead of somewhat milder (not warm) temperatures and more rain/showery weather. A tad milder tomorrow and Monday then cooling down again Tuesday on, but not as cold as this week passed.
Yet again, the further outlook continues to contradict all the drivers of our weather. I consulted some of the more gifted and educated weather folk on a website I use and they are as confounded. I am not (again) saying that we won’t have a colder/sustained cold outbreak, but it looks less likely now than ever before this winter, which is baffling. Anyway, if there’s any change, as usual, I’ll let y’all know!
PS. Don’t think I was as cold as I was tonight ever in Croker! Jeysus! Just warming up now!
I’ve read that there’s sometimes a longer time lag from stratospheric warming leading to lasting high latitude blocking patterns.
However in this case I’m more inclined to believe that the rapidly changing global climate, and increased sea surface temperatures means the atmos is not reacting in the way it used to to the same upper atmos drivers. The loss of deep ice cover in the Artic, and the lack of any ice over a huge area til late November this year could also have an effect.
There was deffo a longer lag time, and what happened in Chicago was absolutely connected to the SSW. However, where the SSW occurred meant that we should have had a reaction north of us.
I had a private conversation with Stuart (Glacier Point) on NetWeather yesterday and he was completely baffled. He has studied the link between Strat and Trop for over 15 years and has several PhDs in meteorology etc. It’s bananas. He agrees that the changes to global climate are most probably why this had been so different.
He is less confident than I am of a February outbreak of HL blocks, but sees why I say they will occur. As usual, time will tell. I’m now touting a mid to late February cold outbreak in desperation at my prediction being true. But I’m a way less confident than I was in December.
I’m so glad I don’t rely on this weather thingy for a living!!! I was so sure we’d have a big and lasting outbreak this year. It’s not done yet, but a lot less likely than it was as time is running out!
Lovely today in Atlanta ahead of the Super Bowl. 60 F today and sunny. God Bless the South.
More nice weather ahead rising to high 60’s Low 70’s during the week. It’s why we live here.
Gwan the Pat’s… Again. They’re nearly as good as the Dubs.
2019 NFL Round 2: Dublin v Galway - Saturday Feb 2 @ 7pm, Neutral
Still nothing wintery of note in the reliable extended outlook as of yet. However, Saturday looks to have quite a wintery feel and will be a wild, wild day, as a deep cyclonic depression moves in from the west, bringing storm force winds and rain/sleety mix as it’s currently showing. Subject to change at this range but I will be keeping a close eye on it!
Met E may advertise a weather warning for this closer to the time.
Some models are showing a quicker landing time ok, I wonder who windy use!?! I’ll have a look when the evening reports come out about 6:30 and confirm what the form horse is!
No idea what they use, yesterday they had the storm friday & saturday, now they seem to have it a little earlier but it changes. Quite a good website/app actually.
Arriving Friday very early am and not going until Sunday early am. Looks quite ferocious Friday evening through to all of Saturday before calming somewhat on Sunday am. Thereafter, a slack cold northerly flow develops with night frost and dry chilly conditions.
And as if by magic
you got my hopes up there for a moment. I read the headline as:
‘Gale force winds to hit Independent.ie
Please, please, please baby Jesus and all the choirs of heavenly angels…let it be called Storm Philly. Pleeeeeeeeze !!!
Storm Erik next
It looks like it’s well gone from Kerryland by throw - up
And to issue a warning as early as this, would generally indicate that they will likely increase the warning level. When they issue them 48 hours or more away, they generally expect the storm to be at least a yellow level, and maybe more.
They have access to far superior weather models than the free things I view, so I would expect this to upgrade tomorrow afternoon/evening. It certainly looks ferocious. For those of you who remember leaving cert geography, the tighter the isobars, the lower the pressure in the centre, the stormier the winds… Here you go, refresh your memory!
Tight isobars and a centre of below 960. That is a pretty vicious storm. It also passes through quite slowly. From entry to our western shoreline on Friday morning early to exiting on Sunday morning early, nearly 48 hours of strong and damaging winds. Winds would be in excess of storm force 8 easily achieved.
Health warning, some models are showing it passing through slightly quicker, so maybe a release from the high winds mid Saturday. Let’s just say it’s a fluid situation.
Just increased to status orange alert for some western counties, the storm is currently developing with rapid cyclogensis and Western counties will feel the strengthening winds after dark. Scope for more widespread warnings and increased levels before tea time I’d say.
Now we await videos of fucking idiots swimming in Salthill
How about timeline?