Well here we go again, one more tempting period of “what if? Maybe, who knows? and ‘think about the elderly’” coming up. In 6 days time the forecast shows some stormy weather hitting, and meanwhile to our northeast and east, an advancing & developing area of intense high pressure, and intense cold is situated, and has been forecast for two days now on both major models to push westwards towards West Europe.
Needless to say this time of scenario is very rare, and has often been forecast at this time-frame but still not happened in reality, because so many unusual factors have to come together for it to do so. But as other weatheries say, it would be a dull pursuit at times if not for some ‘forecast eye-candy’, so here’s what is being shown after 6 days (6 days is already the outer limit of likely accuracy; needless to say eile, the blue is very cold, deeper blue & purple colder still):
Day 7: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=
Day 8: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=
Day 9: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=
If those last two forecasts came off in any sort of close relation, there would be hard frosts, and possibly snow showers in the east (slow-moving, so could be significant). Then the threat moves to the west and south. It’s all dependent on two major features at least, the low pressure developing over the Mediterranean, and being deep/active enough & ‘staying alive’. And the high pressure to the northeast remains centred over North Europe, and intense enough, doesn’t slip eastwards as is shown in the latter charts/forecasts.
The other major forecasting model (GFS) is not showing so much cold hitting us but overall it still shows a consistent colder pattern, with a threat of easterly winds and wintery precipitation. So I’d say right now there’s a 25-50% chance the weather will be much colder overall in the next week or so. Beyond that, as ever, too early to say.
Meanwhile, incidentally, Canada & parts of the Northeast US are experiencing yet again some phenomenal cold over the next week. And East Europe too