The weather winter 16/17


Bluffers and spoofers talking through their hoop ?

Like that’s never happened around here before ! :grinning:


Ahem… What was bullshit about what I wrote 6 days ago?? Jeysus, Met Eireann only said this 2 days ago!!! Just call me Nostradamus!


Somebody did mention snow shovels at one stage recently… :kissing:


Shovel ready , oven ready , Brexit ready , ever ready … not enough to be prepared , you have to be ready



And you said Hillary would get elected!! :scream:

The ‘easterly’ looks timid enough for next week. Promises afterwards of Greenland pressure rises and vortex displacing to Siberia… hmmm


Ah I was thinking of you last night Rochey looking out a the snow pelting down. Pity it didnt stick, love a good snowman


If I had a penny for every time I heard that!


You’d have a penny?


Ye didn’t feckin’ warn Shane Williams …


I’m leaving this forecasting malarkey alone for a while after this! This current cold spell comes to an end tomorrow through Sunday, then a few milder days. The next weeks (2 maybe) dominated by anticyclonic calm weather with very little in the way of rain or the like. Some foggy nights getting cold after dark, but pleasant days when the cloud manages to break. It will remain seasonal temperature wise, bar a few days late next week where we warm up to somewhat milder weather.

Next shot at getting proper cold is in the region of first week of February. Unless something bizarre happens beteeen now and then.



The very watered down easterly next week will eventually bring some heavy frosts to areas away from the East, and south coasts. Britain could see minus 10 at night during the spell, with freezing fog and all that. That’s IF it doesn’t end up producing a blanket of low cloud.

As ever, just out of reach of reliable forecast time, various combinations of northerlies, and easterlies still show up in the charts, and as almost ever they will mostly stay out of reach, with continental Europe, and even the bloody Med getting bursts of severe cold on, and off.

The area of warming ocean between us and Greenland, and the Arctic is acting as an ever more effective bubble of warmth that acts as a barrier to the systems of weather that could bring real cold to us. This may indeed be influenced by melting glaciers in Greenland, and the ever-weakening Arctic ice-cap.

The current overall patterns of atmospheric activity in our region of the Northern hemisphere are what in the past would have surely brought us winters with significant cold spells but now only rarely. Winters 2009-11 are clearly becoming more in context as anomalies within a 25-30 year period (and counting) of mostly tame winters in terms of temperatures.


Well here we go again, one more tempting period of “what if? Maybe, who knows? and ‘think about the elderly’” coming up. In 6 days time the forecast shows some stormy weather hitting, and meanwhile to our northeast and east, an advancing & developing area of intense high pressure, and intense cold is situated, and has been forecast for two days now on both major models to push westwards towards West Europe.;sess=

Needless to say this time of scenario is very rare, and has often been forecast at this time-frame but still not happened in reality, because so many unusual factors have to come together for it to do so. But as other weatheries say, it would be a dull pursuit at times if not for some ‘forecast eye-candy’, so here’s what is being shown after 6 days (6 days is already the outer limit of likely accuracy; needless to say eile, the blue is very cold, deeper blue & purple colder still):

Day 7:;sess=

Day 8:;sess=

Day 9:;sess=

If those last two forecasts came off in any sort of close relation, there would be hard frosts, and possibly snow showers in the east (slow-moving, so could be significant). Then the threat moves to the west and south. It’s all dependent on two major features at least, the low pressure developing over the Mediterranean, and being deep/active enough & ‘staying alive’. And the high pressure to the northeast remains centred over North Europe, and intense enough, doesn’t slip eastwards as is shown in the latter charts/forecasts.

The other major forecasting model (GFS) is not showing so much cold hitting us but overall it still shows a consistent colder pattern, with a threat of easterly winds and wintery precipitation. So I’d say right now there’s a 25-50% chance the weather will be much colder overall in the next week or so. Beyond that, as ever, too early to say.

Meanwhile, incidentally, Canada & parts of the Northeast US are experiencing yet again some phenomenal cold over the next week. And East Europe too


Been watching this develop Al, and this time it’s supported by the background signals (MJO etc) so I’d rate it higher than 25/50% chance…

Of course, now that you’ve mentioned it, means it won’t happen!!! :slight_smile:


I always start with a basis of, “of course it won’t happen”, and hope to work up from there. 25 years since any sort of significant cold spell from the East…

The links to charts above are wrong, I’ll change em when I can use techno bigger than a bloody Sony Experia phone


Pssst I doubt anyone will notice …


Look at this mornings 06z run Al??? Wow is all I can say!


Without having to read through all of that and figure out what you are saying, is it gonna bleedin snow or wha?


Very strong possibility if the charts verified as they stand!


Maybe some transient snow tomorrow evening or night too, definitely on Wicklow/Dublin mountains anyway!