The weather winter 16/17


Ooh errrr Matron ! :grin:


Absolutely, it will always evolve anyway.
I admire you for putting out the prediction there, when you think the conditions required for significant snow at sea-level in Ireland are becoming more and more rare, in the last 20 years there have only been 3 winters in my memory where it has happened. And coastal places are even less likely than inland to see anything that will stay on the ground/not melt immediately or just be sleet.

My current thoughts are especially coloured by last year’s (and the last few years since 2011) amateur experts debate where predictions of the required patterns were sometimes correct in general but still the more local/regional specfics meant we didn’t get the sort of combination of cold & precipitation required.

It has indeed looked to be full of potential for snowy weather the last few weeks but long experience has taught me a few things, and one of those is never to be fooled by the buzz of November showing promising charts for snow!! (except for 2010! When the water in the Alexander Basin had ice on it by the end of November, probably something that last happened in 1987, maybe 91, and both of those times were in January, November so much more unlikely).


Well that change from the west looks to be slowly coming. So far, after what will be a mild & increasingly windy week, the forecasts are indicating that this re-set of the system in this part of the northern hem’ might do the trick in terms of providing a shot at some real cold in the 2nd half of Dec. No sign yet of any real ‘blow-torch Atlantic’, though the Alps are getting wild swings of temperatures the past few weeks, mostly very mild or warm even.

Possibility of high pressure forming to our north in about a week to 10 days, and in the meantime lots of cold building up right across the northern hemisphere.


It’s only been 4 days Al… I said 5 to 7 days!

I’m still fairly confident in my forecast. And I’ve been spot on so far… Now where’s me own trumpet 'til I blow it!


Would ye both be available to meet up for a pint over the Xmas? Can think of nothing more exciting than sitting between the pair of ye as ye discuss precipitation, mild bulges and cold fronts.


As long as we meet in a warm sector


It’s a good thing there’s no Weather Channel over here. They’d never leave the house. :sunglasses:


Here’s a thought…

If you don’t like it, don’t ■■■■**g read it! Quite simple really!


Ah Rochey … don’t be getting stormy


Stop picking on @Rochey, @Dub09 … he’s a true Gael, albeit a bit misty-eyed at times.


Just feeling the pressure


Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight,
Red sky in the morning, shepherd’s warning,
Smell of minced meat in the kitchen, shepherd’s pie …


Ok, I’m conceding defeat on my mid December freeze up. The background noise was all there for it to happen, but these have faded somewhat and are now more or less gone. Plenty of time for change as we enter into winter proper, but the prospects are poor now. Standard westerly regime for the time being.


Can anyone explain to me why in gods name is it so warm today? It is the 7th of December isn’t it?


A drag of warm air from southern latitudes, to put it simply. Very fecking warm!


There are some warm fronts coming in on the Labrador current and this is feeding an anti cyclone. The hot air from the Doldrums is permeating through the southern hemisphere causing unseasonal warnth, humidity and general bon viveurance. Unfortunately a glacial blast is winding it’s way down from the North Pole but at least it will likely be accompanied by a large anthropoid bearing gifts.


Now I know you figured how to copy & paste that :joy:. But yes, what a weird day . Was wrapped up like an Eskimo walking the dog & dieing.


No shit. T’was feckin roasting in work, when the heating comes on automatically and no one knows how to turn it off.


I wore two jumpers today!! Lost a few kilos of water weight on the bus to college that’s for sure


Don’t give up Rochey! I can see potential in the overall set-up predicted for the next 10 days. And it’s still not “blow-torch Atlantic”, despite the exceptional mild of the last two days. Vortex is south of Greenland which is good, and the jet flow out of the (as usual incredibly cold) North American Northeast into the north Atlantic is disrupted.

I think a Russian/Scandinavia block could build and could be a real hope of migrating westwards by later December, at worst in early January.