It’s been a really unusual pattern for the time of year, especially into november. Is it starting to change though? Typically november and December are very Greenland vortex-dominated, with lots of Atlantic wind & rain for here.
If the current set-up holds it will mean further cold-snaps in the coming weeks, with the potential for more serious cold by the end of December/early january.
Whatever happens, there shirley can’t be a third winter in a row of intense cold for weeks in North-America & eastern Canada, while we bathe in endless boring mild mush, can there? In the good old days twas said that ‘what they have in the northeast of North America will come to Europe after a couple of weeks’. Not true anymore!
Seems like the modern climate ‘wave’ or ‘bell’ shaped upper atmospheric pattern I’ve read about that means alternating cold & warm in one relatively small part of the hemisphere is holding true. In the past if cold was coming to the northern hemisphere it would hit a large swathe, from North America across to Europe & Western Russia. Hence winters like 46/47, 62/63, 1978/79, 81/82, 84/85.
Not since winter 86/87 have we had a serious spell of bitter easterly winds here. That’s 30 years! The cold winters of the start of this decade came purely from the north.
The current set-up has both Greenland region & Scandinavian heights, but the forecasts are predicting heights falling. Long-range suggests the vortex might start to move to Scandinavia which could bring very cold northerlies here but experience tells me that the current no-mans land of us between Greenland, Scandinavian heights & Azores ridge will continue more or less, with ongoing tease forecasts of easterly & northerly blasts taking over.
The outcome is usually watered down, somewhere between, that’s the pattern for a while now, so why change? Most of the forecasts show it. If the Scandi high sinks south then we badly need the Azores high to move north, northwest.
Ahh, scratch all that though, november looks like it has woken up now, forecasts all showing decline of all except Azores heights and vortex setting up in typical spot to bring us our late autumnal and early winter Atlantic gruel