Repeal the 8th - Poll


#784

RTE stating that their poll is 69% yes ± 1.6% margin for error

WOW


#785

Good call. Must say I am surprised at that.


#786

Wow indeed.

It does raise the question of why the polls in the run up to today didn’t capture this. Did that many people really not make up their minds till the last week, or were we dealing with a shy yes voter factor.


#787

One can only hope but don’t count on it. They were staying quiet the last week - didn’t want to go against the public opinion.


#788

In all fairness here, we live in a democracy and people are entitled to have their own opinion - as long as they accept the majority opinion. I am uncomfortable with a lot of elements of this but overall it had to be Yes for me.

Peadar Toibin for instance has very heartfelt views and I wouldn’t diss him for them. At least he had the cojones to stand up for them even knowing he was likely fatally damaging his political career. Others were different - petulant and nasty - the likes of Mattie McGrath, insidious, but he will be returned time after time … unfortunately


#789

I’m only in my mid-thirties. When I was a boy and even a young teenager there was no such thing as divorce in this country, access to contraceptives including condoms was restricted, it was illegal for two men to have sex with each other and we still had magdalene laundries.

For all our faults as a nation we have come a long way.


#790

#791

Wouldn’t celebrate abortion but celebrate that we are no longer dictated to by the Roman Catholic cult and that some of the disgraceful tactics of the no campaign failed spectacularly.


#792

I’ll just leave that there …


#793

No room for ninja edit!


#794

Arguably they did, the last poll put Yes at 56%, No at 27%, Undecided 14% and Not Voting at 3%.
There was just an expectation that the “Don’t Knows” would almost all become “Nos” but really all that’s happened here is that they too have followed the 2:1 split of those that had already decided.

As DubInTipp alluded to, apparently the No side commissioned a super-accurate data analytics based poll towards the end of last week and last weekend they got its estimation of the final No vote - 34%. This stunned them and they knew the game was up, hence the various factions starting to go off message and distance themselves from other groups in the campaign. And that 34% was before Ronan Mullen’s comments on mental health, his ‘you deserve love’ comment or Quinn’s ‘property’ tweet which can’t have helped alter that in their favour.

The huge margin is going to make any change to the proposed legislation very unpopular and unlikely to succeed. It may well turn out that every constituency returned a Yes vote so the “listening to the voice of my constituents” line won’t wash. I think you’ll find a few TDs that were planning to oppose this on conscience will have a long look at those results and claim a Road To Damascus moment - they can say all they want about principles but the one principle every TD has is making sure they remain a TD.

I backed a Yes vote in the 60-70% range on Wednesday (11/4) and it’s remarkable to think the only realistic danger I won’t win that now is that the Yes vote could hit 70%.


#795

I would say Micheál Martin is feeling pretty satisfied with himself this morning. Another blow for the Eamonn DeValera wing of his party.


#796

In more good news, John waters said he’d leave the country if we voted leave, that might have swung the vote


#797

Tayto you have just made my day! This should be on the good news thread!


#798

There are significant repercussions from this, politically speaking. Most of FF got it wrong. Leo won’t fear going to the country for an election now. Mary Lou played well. Its going to get interesting. She could end up as Tanaiste to Leo, or Tsoiseach with Micheâl as Tanaiste!


#799

Is that Greek for Prime Minister?


#800

My apologies! The predictive text just won’t leave things alone!


#801

The second option would not happen in a million years.


#802

Nobody thought Charlie would go in with Dessie! FF have been out of office for 8 years. They don’t like that in FF. Sinn Fein will be in govt next time. The only question is with whom will they coalesce.


#803

FF would not accept a subservient role to SF under ANY circumstances.