I think the stat on penalties now is that 1/3 of them are scored. If that's correct then unless you have someone who can move the ball very fast I think going for a point is always a better option. It looks like the ball is just too far from the goal now and in the time it takes the ball to reach the goal line, the keeper can cover the whole goal. Even if this includes having to go to his wrong side. The exception is if you have someone with a TJ Reid type shot, but that is not common.
The thing that matters is speed on the ball, so teams that send their knacky free taker up to take them, like we do with Treacy, are not going to get good percentages. The ability to score from 80m out with a high lobbing free has nothing in common with driving the ball from 20m.