Irish Politics


#1607

I heard that too. Came across very badly. Seemed to indicate he would only accept a result that he wanted and anything else was illegitimate.


#1608

Well the results are in, very little changed as regards the last election in questions of pro and anti independence, Although the pro independence side increased their vote, they lost two seats, which leaves them with an overall majority of two, the breakdown is basically Pro independence 70 seats , Unionists 57 seats, other 8 seats went to Catalunya Comun, who have asked not to be counted in either block. The Pro independence parties out voted the Unionists by about 150K votes, again the Comuns asked for their votes not to be counted on either side.
Where there was big changes was within the votes for different parties, Ciutadans won by 2 seats, they are very pro Union They got 37 seats, (The two main pro ind parties got 34 and 32, so clearly Ciutadans benefitted from a split vote) , but the big flop was Rajoy’s Party, which leaves him in a very dodgy position, he will see that the support he got from Ciutadans has sunk his own party in Catalonia and will now fear them on a national level. On the other side Puigdemont’ s party was the most voted and won most seats when most expected them to be second.
Where does that leave us? Well pretty much in the same place as before, it was fairly predictable and one would ask Rajoy what solution does he have now, more imprisonments? More refusal to talk? He said the 155 would bring things back to normality well the only real change has been his Party went from 11 seats to 3 and are now the smallest group in the parliament, but his biggest problem will be how to handle the situation within the unionist parties, if he comes out tomorrow and praises the anti independence vote, he is really praising the people that voted for Ciutadans and people around Spain will see Ciutadans as the Party that put it up to the Catalans and that will cost Rajoy big time on the national stage.
On the international front, I would imagine other leaders will be asking, albeit privately, after all the steps he has taken what has he achieved and furthermore, what he intends to do with over 2 million people that voted for the independence parties today.


#1609

But if any step is given here the Basque question is back on the table and who knows what else after that. I genuinely don’t see the great benefits of potential Spanish fragmentation at all.

On the one hand we have had increasing movement towards economic and political integration with the EU and then this regional quest for autonomy. Ain’t gonna happen imo. Without meaning to be overly-flippant what would we think if Cork or Kerry sought to break away…


#1610

i was thinking that as well. Now i know they talk funny but they don’t actually have their own language in cork & kerry.

Agree that increasing fragmentation to smaller and smaller states doesn’t seem like a great idea but then who am i to tell the catalans what’s what. One worry would be this trend where richer regions are tired of ‘subsidising poorer areas’ as they see it.


#1611

Correct. Be very careful there Arlene …


#1612

It is clear after yesterday that the Catalan society is split down the middle, what needs to be done IMO is there needs to be a radical change in attitude from Spain towards the Catalans, there is a real feeling here from the Catalan side of not being wanted, but being needed.
That change is unlikely to happen though, already today it is expected that the state prosecuetor is going to call a new batch of Catalan leaders before the courts accusing them of rebellion, people talk about the separtion of powers, but again is it coincidence that they waited until the day after the elections to do this? BTW Pep Guardiola is also on the list of names given to the Judge by the Guardia civil, apparently the State prosecuter now claims that the massive demonstrations over the years on the 11th of September were acts of rebellion and Guardiola spoke at one.


#1613

Me brother in law is spanish and he says the current prime minister is a gobschite and is making a bags of it.


#1614

Leaving aside the obvious point that Catalunya has a much more distinct identity than any county in Ireland, that does actually go to the very heart of it. As things stand, the Regional Government has no more legal right to declare independence than Kerry County Council.

This could prove a critical juncture in the story of the EU and well those running it know it. It clearly isn’t just about Catalunya and Spain, there are similar situations all over Europe. While everyone knows about Scotland, Flanders and the Basque Country, a recent poll claimed 33% of Bavarians want independence from Germany. 10 years ago that was about the same percentage of Catalans that wanted independence from Spain. If Germany splits, it’s ball burst, game over for the EU. That’s why I can’t see Catalunya getting anything but the cold shoulder from the EU institutions.

Where do we go from here? As BigP says, take away all the drama and bar the internal politics of either side, not much has really changed. However I will say that more than ever, people were aware of the implications of voting for the parties they voted for and whereas there was a degree of aspiration and hypothesis about previous polls, there was a definite sense that this was going to shape the future of the region. Neither the independence movement nor the unionists got a majority of votes (as opposed to seats, again the system favoured the separatists) so neither can claim a mandate. It must be acknowledged that a majority (around 54%) voted for parties that want an independence referendum, so I do feel that needs to be acknowledged in Madrid and whatever changes in law are required to facilitate that should be enacted (as much I believe independence would be detrimental to the region and especially anybody not of the separatist mindset living in it).


#1615

Surely in order to split from a country you ought to require more then a 51% majority - as it is such a huge change?

it seems daft to me that a shitstorm like brexit can be decided by a tiny majority, like if they had held the poll 6 months previously it might have been a different result but you can just go in and out all the time.


#1616

Excellent post, @Uroy.
I think the implications of such a vote and possible, future, independence referendum has similar parallels across many countries around the world. Quebec may re-ignite a desire for independence from Canada. Kashmir and Punjab might well each look for a breakaway from India.


#1617

Maybe Rajoy should put it to GAA Congress. :wink:

The question of what constitutes a mandate for independence is debatable but personally I’d say a simple majority is sufficient. After all, if more people want it than don’t want it, isn’t that what democracy determines should happen?


#1618

If this idiot had made this known a few days before the Brexit vote, the Leave campaign would surely have had a much bigger win.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spds-martin-schulz-wants-united-states-of-europe-by-2025/


#1619

Though they leave campaigners will use this to good effect. We should be weary of people like this.


#1620

You can’t just be having referendums and then second ones just because you don’t like the first result … :wink:


#1621

Nice… very Nice.


#1622

Nice… rhymes with twice.


#1623

You insist on this point and you may have a point in a normal situation, but this was not a normal election . If you take a look at the map which shows where the parties actually got their votes it is very clear that the unionist vote was in the big cities, they more or less won them all and this where the rules on who is actually allowed to vote is a major factor, take Barcelona for example, thousands of students come from all over Spain to study in the universities, almost all of them would register as residents, if not they would not be entitled to a lot of grants and most of them would vote unionist. In a town near here there is a military barracks, two bus loads of soldiers arrived at the polling station to vote, the locals say the soldiers never bothered voting in autonomic elections before. Then you have a lot of people that live in towns in Aragon , but their nearest big city is in Catalonia , a lot of them register in Catalonia in order to avail of health and education, Add to that ordinary people from around Spain that are residing in the big cities temporarily and you have an important number of votes, most of these people would never bother to vote here, but a lot of them voted yesterday.
I am not saying that they should not be allowed vote, just stating then any advantage the independence groups might have with the system was more than cancelled out by votes from people that are here for a short time and normally wouldn’t bother voting. In saying all that, it is true that in the big cities there are much bigger numbers of people who have spent all or most of their lives here and feel Catalan, but also Spanish and even without the temporary residents the Unionist vote will always be bigger there, but not to the extent of the vote they got yesterday and Rajoy would be fooling himself were he to believe that the Unionist vote was a 100% representative of Catalan people.


#1624

This map shows how the voting went, in the yellow area the independence parties won on votes in the blue area the unionists.


#1625

I’m no sinner but isn’t it hilarious all of the Adams Loughgall stuff breaking the same day it was revealed MI5 were plotting to assassinate CJ.


#1626

Long rumored about Adams/ the Belfast clique, not very popular or welcome in those parts apparently.

There was also something mentioned about British army supplied detonators used by the UVF and possibly linked to the Showbands incident.

And the Birmingham 6 stuff yesterday.

The archives always throw up interesting stuff.