Irish Politics


#1587

I would not read too much into the opinion polls, they have been way off the mark in a lot recently, also it is debatable as to what a clear winner actually is.
Some will argue an overall majority of seats, others will argue an overall majority of votes, others will argue the most voted party, the ideal thing would be for one side to achieve all three, being realistic that is only possible for the pro independence side.


#1588

maybe so, but I thought the heavy handed way the spanish gov handled the referendum might have pushed a lot more people towards the leave vote.

It’s not always about the economy, look at brexit!


#1589

Fair point!


#1590

Voting for the status quo would definitely not be voting for your wallets, as the uncertainty is not good for anyone’s wallet, but either way I think your idea that it is mainly an economic issue is well off the mark. There is no doubt that economics play a part, but there is also a sentiment factor on both sides, in the same way as if there were to be a referendum in the North tomorrow, a sizeable amount of people would vote one way or the other regardless of the economy.
If anything is to change in the this election I have no doubt it will be down to the sentiment factor, a lot of people here seem very angry at how they have been treated by the Spanish authorities over the last few months, now whether than converts into votes it remains to be seen.


#1591

That’s a distinct possibility. The pro-independence side also have the regional electoral system in their favour, which allowed them to gain a parliamentary majority last time despite winning only 47.8% of the popular vote. To those that don’t know, the region has something akin to the US electoral college system which gives rural areas (where support for independence is strongest) a disproportionate number of seats.

The best hope for a swing to the anti-independence side is that enough of those that were somewhat persuadable and voted for pro-independence parties last time knowing there’d be a final day of reckoning ahead will balk at doing so again, now that the prospect of independence and the uncertainty it will entail is so much more real.

I suspect there won’t be any clear winner with both sides claiming the other has no mandate.


#1592

pro-independance guy just on the radio there, he didnt come across all that well - citing the recent referendum and when challenged that on that day the no vote clearly boycotted started waffling on about the right to self determination enshrined in law yadda yadda. he wont accept the result today … unless they win … :face_with_raised_eyebrow:


#1593

Most people who voted for Brexit did so because of foreigners stealing their jobs. Just ask them.

Companies ar fleeing Catalonia. That will make people think. Sentiment be damned.


#1594

To say it is in their favour is an overstatement, Barcelona and its surrounding cities make up for well over have the population of Catalonia, there are a huge amount of people from all over Spain in these areas and I am not talking second generation, I am talking about people who may be only here 1 or 2 years, if the rural vote did not get some kind of compensation for this, there would be no point in people from out side Barcelona voting for anything as their vote would be meaningless. For a Spanish citizen to vote in the autonomic elections, they alone have to be officially residing here for 6 months before the election. I would say that 47.8 % of the vote is fairly big given the criteria used to allow people vote, because you you be fairly sure that most of those 47.8% are people who have been here quite a long time, understand the issues fully, whereas on the other side it is not that clear.


#1595

Bleedin culchies always causing trouble. voting in the nazis in germany and now this.


#1596

The fact remains that you can gain a parliamentary majority with probably 46-47% of the popular vote and the pro-independence side will always have that in their favour due to the voting preferences of people in the rural areas, just as the Republicans are almost always the beneficiaries of the electoral college system in the States (where Trump won last time despite getting almost 3 million fewer votes than Clinton).


#1597

The fact is also that that is a truer reflection of what the Catalan people really want, as the rural people and people who have lived here for generations, whereas a large part of the urban vote can be made up of people who have been here for 6 months and might well be gone within a year, there is no perfect system, but my point is that the advantage the pro independence vote may have with the rural system is more than compensated for by the criteria applied when deciding who can and who cannot vote, I would bet my life if somebody suggested that only people born here could vote the unionist side would be up in arms.


#1598

i’m sure there’s a transient portion of the urban population but a large part of it is only there six months?


#1599

I’d like to think anybody that called themselves a democrat would be up in arms, no credible democracy anywhere in the world restricts the right to vote to natives.

The voting system is worth 4-5% to the separatists, I don’t accept the transient urban population is numerous enough to be worth anything like that to the unionists.


#1600

I take from that that you don’t consider the UK or Canada democratic countries, neither allowed all natives to take part in referendums on independence within in their country. Residency within the region was a requirement in both countries and the criteria on how you gain residency varies depending on the country, in Spain as it stands you have to become a resident of an autonomic region in order to vote.
473,695 people born in the UK but outside scotland were allowed to vote, whereas 681,406 Scots residing in the UK, but outside Scotland could not vote. just making the point that on who you allow to vote can be a major factor.


#1601

That’s not what I said at all. You mooted restricting the vote to natives only, the UK and Canada restricted it to residents only - they’re entirely different things.


#1602

I didn’t suggest it, just said there would be uproar if it were to be done and the reasons are obvious, but that being said IMO just allowing residents to vote is also a bit unfair, I mean is it really fair that an English person living in Scotland for a few months can decide scotland’s future, but a Scot living in England can’t have a say.


#1603

this trump administration are some laugh


#1604

We voted against. There goes our FDI …


#1605

Don’t forget the way the Spanish government acted following the anti-austerity protests/gatherings circa 2011-12 in Madrid.
Cue the introduction of a gagging law (the reknowned ‘ley mordaza’) which, among other things, allows individuals causing a “disturbance” outside of the national congress, or senate, or any parliament building of any autonomous region - even when empty(!) - to be fined anything up to €600,000. That softened the cough of many decent citizens who attempted to voice their displeasure at what was going on :pensive:

The impact of this heavy-handed wallop against civil rights? The very same PM of that era remains in charge. Certain actions don’t always gain the reaction you’d expect in Spain.


#1606

Only 9 voted with them.

Gas.