East / West conflict strategy


#161

Both Turkey and the EU privately at least it could be argued, were only ever negotiating a fudge. Turkey joining the EU was too high a price for both sides. That dynamic has changed somewhat, with the Syrian situation. It’s looking increasingly likely the Syrian gov. along with its allies will defy the western agenda and have a success of sorts. That success will be a government controlled, functioning safe area and possibly in the short term a containment area for the opposition. For Turkey, the Syrian conflict has provided it with much insight and choice. It has shown how strong and less decerning an ally Russia is, and how suitable an alliance would be. The EU staring Brexit in the face and its most powerful ally America being less and less predictable on the international and interventionalist stage, cannot afford a Turkey outside its area of influence. The EU in its existing design is unlike Russia, China and America it does not have the powerful leader in control of a powerful army, yet. How soon that happens, well slower if Brexit goes ahead, but sooner than most of us would have imagined.


#162

Whatever about the Turkish people looking to join the EU I don’t believe erdogan and his government are enthusiastic anymore, privately at least.


#163

I agree the EU is unlikely to accept Turkey as a full member at this stage, but in theory it’s a country with an eu landborder and a market of 80 million people to sell to. When you say the 8 million ethnic Turks already in the EU are a relatively small amount, Ireland is 5 million approx with no land border, just saying.


#164

And then there’s the thorny issues of immigration and the Kurds. Turkey is in a very powerful position as EU buffer, as you said. The EU is far more vulnerable than many of us realise. Plus the fact that NATO (on this issue, the U.S.) prodding Russia behind the scenes for the last 20 years is not a help to the E.U. either.


#165

I would agree, the Kurds will be abandoned for EU security although the U.S would like to see them achieve some autonomy as it would give them some influence in region. Russia’s display on the world stage has moved on, from a very low point it has to be said, to a new high. It’s diplomacy when suited has been machevalian in comparison to the west and its military advancement as displayed particularly in Crimea has shown it as comparable if not better than the west in a lot of areas. A lined with that is the full unquestioning support it has from china just in case anyone may have overlooked it.
Fundamentally it could be argued that the support afforded to Israel by the EU and U.S is the basis for most of the discord and hypocrisy in the region. Trump has threatened Iran with language hinting strongly at nuclear obliteration, while allowing Saudi Arabia and Israel murder across borders with impunity. Only recently Israel killed 70 Iranian republican guard soldiers in Syria with an airstrike. Iran has not retaliated as yet. Iran has proven itself as a good ally of Russia on the Syrian battlefield, will Russia allow Israel act as the aggressor with impunity in the region and if not will the U.S respond ? .


#166

Israel has been the main cause of much of the unrest in the middle east all along. If Russia allows Iran to respond, things could get interesting. The Israeli shooting of clearly unarmed demonstrators has been a new low.

And then, more predictable lies from the usual source:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/israel-and-the-gaza-shootings-1.3476795


#167

Allowing Israel a carte Blanche to murder with impunity across the world and not be held to the same criteria as everyone else is the big failure. The landscape will change drastically with Russian success in Syria, already the Russian air defence system possibly the S400 but most likely the S300 is being delivered to Syria which in itself will be a game changer.
The west had an opportunity to change the world balance with perestroika and glasnost, it dropped the ball in favour of short term exploitation and greed. However the west describe Putin, for Russia he has shown to be a great leader.


#168

He is far smarter, and saner than Trump. The results speak for themselves. Hence the clumsy and untrue nonsense about Skripal and chemical weapon deployment in Syria. There was a time when these would have been believed.


#169

Last night missiles were launched into Syria striking a military base containing Iranian forces allied to Syrian government, the blast was so big it registered 2.6 on Richter scale as an earthquake, numbers reported up to 50 killed and 80 injured. Speculation is this attack was carried out by Israel or America. There has been no stated military response from Syria, Russia or Iran. Tonight the Israel gov. are speculated to make an announcement on national television at 8pm, it is speculated that they are to declare intensification of its military campaign against Syria and Iran.


#170

That will be their biggest mistake yet.


#171

Really depends on Russian position, seems Russia may or may not take Irans side, hard to know. Will it just be Iran v Israel or Iran v Israel / America or all in.


#172

Netanyahu “claiming to have evidence” that Iran has secret nuclear weapons.

This stunt has John Bolton’s fingerprints all over this.

Netanyahu like Trump is under investigation. Why could they possibly want a war :thinking::thinking:


#173

Exactly. Bibi is as crooked as a cork screw. It will be a huge mistake though. I think people are weary about lies regarding nuclear weapons. That will have no credibility. I have long believed that Israel, as a nation, is ill and in deep denial. Many of them would love to flex their military muscle. If they do, I predict that they will lose.


#174

So they made the claim as you predicted! Are you a spy?


#175

Just a good guy, like yourself.


#176

Let’s hope people haven’t forgotten the consequences of his previous accusations


#177

Correct

That little stunt this evening was for an audience of one. His orangeness in the White House


#178

It wouldn’t be the first time Israel has lied to Uncle Sam. The problem is that Uncle Sam knows it’s all lies as they are pre-agreed lies.


#179

One phone call, to prevent the massacre of hundreds of innocent people, it didn’t happen and Israel has continued a murderess campaign ever since. Unrestricted by international law and not held to account, why ?, because it’s in Americas interest.
" it would have been difficult to prevent the massacre during that period, “unless Reagan had picked up the phone and called Begin and read him the riot act.”


#180

One of the only senior Israeli politicians of the last 30 years, or so, who had the capability of agreeing peace with the Palestinians was Yitzhak Rabin. We know what happened to him.
The flip side, of course, is that we have all the neighbouring states backing the Palestinians’ stance against Israel but when it comes to them taking in Palestinian refugees, none of them will take them in.
The area is literally a minefield - and yet again I assert that the French and British are most culpable.