Think the problem here is that the provincials are not a real indicator of the best team, so I think that Galway beating Mayo in Connaught may not mean that they are superior. IMO the better teams are usually those that go further in the champo and even that is not always the case as the draw and results in other games can at times allow teams to go further than they really should be going, until Galway start doing the business in the latter stages of the champo, the jury is out.
While mayo have another year on the clock I still put them just behind us, Kerry are in too much of a flux right now.
Mayo will have massive motivation to get Galway in may. In any other year going out of Connaught wouldn’t unduly worry them as they would (when exercised) get through the backdoor. This year, there is a backdoor and then two extra games before the semi finals and that is a lot for them.
Roscommon won’t be a force in the West this year, so beat Galway in may and the road to August is a lot handier.
Seriously , anyone think it won’t be Dublin Mayo in the AI again ?
Mayo are conditioned to peak for All Ire semis and finals. And they have vast experience in major Champ games. Galway are more focused on progress from a lower base which means sensibly doing as well as possible in games where they have a decent chance of winning, which are of course the league and Connaught or qualifiers.
Galway will hope to make a Champ breakthrough by beating a really good team in knockout/winning a Qtr final. If they do that then they will start conditioning more for the end of the summer.
Currently if they had done that the odds would be they don’t go so well in league, or Connaught, and then still get beat by very good/better/more experienced teams in latter knockout games. Thats too much of a gamble for them so far, they are trying to build a base.
That said at some stage very soon they need to win a serious knockout game against a really good side to progress further.
Dubs and donegal
I can’t remember the way the super eights result in the semi final line ups, but if we are apart in the semis then yes which you’d expect as they are the best two teams.
Group 1: Munster champions, Connacht champions, Ulster runner-up (or qualifier team that beats them in Round 4), Leinster runner-up (or qualifier team that beats them in round 4)
Group 2: Ulster champions, Leinster champions, Munster runner-up (or qualifier team that beats them in Round 4), Connacht runner-up (or qualifier team that beats them in round 4)
The semi-finals will be comprised of the top two teams from each group.
This is the thing , we could have some unusual semi pairings . Not sure what way they will work the semis but if we were to follow the pairings I think it’s Leinster v Connacht , Munster v Ulster this year . So is it going to be an open draw this year ?
The winner and runner up of group 1 play winner and runner up of group 2 . If the winner and runner up of group 2 is dubs & Tyrone and both counties win their respective semi’s then they will play each other again as the all Ireland final, not great me thinks.
Yeah that’s it , so yeah you could have some repeat matches . God you could have Dublin Mayo in the group & the final . The teams who make the final will have their home work well done then .
Dublin v mayo in super 8 will make last Saturday look like a classic.
No one will want to show their hands . Some said their could be dead rubber games & even teams throwing the final games to get a more favourable semi .
In the group will it be 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw. If so might need to make it 3 points for a win. Also if teams finish on same points and same over all score difference and all else being equal head to head and all that, how do they decide who goes through.
Can’t seem to find any info on that
I couldn’t either, will do some research if I get the magic snow days or if they don’t materialise will look into it over the weekend .
But @bigp Mayo were 5 in a row Connacht champions up to 2015? Donegal appeared in 6 in a row up to 2016 - winning half of them. Kerry have won 5 in a row.
I will not mention Leinster but overall I think the provincials are mostly a fair indicator of the best team … no?
Still some shadow-boxing to an extent in the groups I feel. But it’s making the provincials more interesting in a way. The runners up in Connaught for example, will have to beat at least one of the Leinster and Ulster winners, which is most likely to be Dublin, and either Tyrone, Donegal or Monaghan. But then again, whatever about Galway, Mayo won’t fear any of the Ulster teams. Roscommon not good enough yet I feel to achieve 2nd in an 8 group. Similarly Cork. I’m assuming of course Dublin will do enough to stay ahead of whatever Ulster winner it is as well.
I’ll come to the qualifier factors in a minute.
So let’s say you had Dublin and Mayo as the top two in that group, if Mayo decide not to really go for Connaught, but do go after the win against Galway and get it. That would leave the semis quite possibly as Mayo/Dublin Vs Kerry/Galway though an Ulster team could take Galway out. Can’t see Kildare or another Leinster team challenge the top 3 teams, possibly not even the top 6.
If Mayo win Connaught, they will surely finish in the top 2 of the Munster/Connaught winners’ group barring an Ulster team shocking them. That would leave them most likely facing Dublin or an Ulster team or Galway in a semi-final. That’s probably their best scenario, as they will fancy taking us in a semi-final a bit more than a final, and of course they will expect to beat Galway or the Ulster team. They may even plan for us a bit given we are most likely team to win a group.
But Kerry likewise will prefer to get us in a semi-final I think. Having said that Kerry with all their newer players bedding in will also be very happy to reach a final, which they will most likely do by avoiding us. Mayo clearly just want the best scenario to try to beat us as that gives them a great chance of taking Sam.
As for the qualifier outliers, well Galway or Mayo will be there, as will at least one of the top 3 Ulster teams. Mayo will be vulnerable against one of those Ulster teams in a qualifier. But that was also true last year but Donegal weren’t such a threat.
Overall I suspect Mayo need a Connaught win to boost squad confidence and unity. Galway will be looking to make more progress than before in the All-I series. And Mayo will simply want to win the CC a bit more than Galway anyway. So Mayo to beat Galway and probably win C.
Not sure if qualifiers are streamed in any way prior to 8s?
I’m a little miffed by your post, what are you basing your prediction on. Is it last years championship form or/and league form, or is it this years league form so far, is it the lot combined or is it historic form or maybe just your gut feeling possibly. We are prone on here to go by historic form and it sometimes colours our predictions. What teams showed the ability to win consistently over 70mins, I do not believe that in the super 8s, if the game is a draw you get a replay correct me if I’m wrong.
Maybe a name change to say Sligo south a new manager with All Ireland senior county winning experience and a heap of footballers, might just get them an all Ireland before Galway if they start now.
Why a name change? Nearly ever post your sticking the boot to Mayo.
I imagine he’s basing it on championship form…galway have done nothing in the championship business end ie semis and finals of all Irelands whereas mayo continually get there…i personally think they’ve missed the boat but I wouldn’t have galway in the top 4 of contenders and I would mayo