Mayo have been just doing enough to win, it's not a bad habit to have. Rochford seems to take each opponent and break them down to devise a specific plan against them. He will have his work cut out to do the same against this Dublin team. The only perceived weakness is the full back line under a high diagonal ball. Mayo have tried that with O'Shea before and it hasn't worked. I can't see them using this tactic as a main game plan like Kerry.
Mayo will not be able to just show up in short spells of the game like against Tipp. He needs to try something different to Horan and hope it works.
From the start, I reckon they will deploy 2 sweepers - Moran and McLoughlin, with Moran never venturing forward but McLoughin breaking from deep when they have possession. I think they will rely heavily on the running game of Keegan, McLoughlin, Boyle, Vaughan and D O'Connor. Then try keep A O'Shea around 11 to link up the play to A. Moran and C O'Connor. Personally I don't think it will be enough, eventually Dublin will break them down and force them to push up and create gaps.
If Mayo are chasing the game I think O'Shea and D. Moran could be thrown into the edge of the square for 10 mins and Mayo will hope for the best with O'Connor and A. Moran on the loop.
If Mayo win it will be because of a tactical masterclass from Rochford. Dublin by 4, Bernard Brogan first goal. He likes playing Mayo.